FxWirePro: spot on AUD/CAD’s failure swings at channel resistance, can bears develop descending channel and retest long-lasting support?
Source: FxWire Pro - Technicals / 07 Mar 2019 12:05:41 Europe/London
AUDUSD’s minor trend has been sliding through the sloping channel (refer 4H chart).
The pair formed hammer pattern candle at channel support (at 0.9318 levels), ever since then the bulls dragged rallies up to 0.9478 levels in the recent past.
Caution: The failure swings at channel resistance of 0.9478 levels on overbought pressures.
For now, bears resume at channel resistance and likely to extend slumps as both the momentum oscillators show overbought pressures.
It has been a tight tug of war between bulls and bears in AUDCAD major trend.
After hammer and bullish engulfing formation on the monthly chart, but the failure swings are observed below 21-EMAs likely to test strong support of 0.9150 levels.
We could foresee downside traction as RSI shows losing strength at 63 levels, while stochs have entered overbought territory on intraday terms.
Bearish EMA & MACD crossovers that are backed by the bearish momentum indicated from leading indicators on monthly terms as well.
The major trend has been drifting in the range, the failure swings are observed at sloping range resistance, consequently, the prices slid below EMAs (refer monthly chart).
RSI has been converging downwards below 44 levels, while stochastic curves right from overbought zone have also consistently evidenced %D crossover which is bearish crossover (on monthly), currently slightly indecisive on the intraday chart but bearish bias above 80 levels which is the overbought territory.
Hence, at spot reference: 0.9460 levels, we advise staying short in mid-month futures contracts on hedging grounds with a view to arrest the southward targets of another 200 - 300 pips, but maintain a strict stop loss of 0.9637 (i.e. 21-EMA levels).
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD spot index is flashing -54 (which is bearish), while hourly CAD spot index was at -111 levels (bearish) at 11:45 GMT.
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